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Rothschild model: Trump in Illinois trails by a very clear margin


The Rothschild model published an updated prediction of the election result. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 99.0% for Clinton and 1.0% for Trump in Illinois.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models can incorporate substantial biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single econometric models, the evidence-based approach is to consult combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon different methods and data.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Illinois has Clinton at 54.0% of the two-party vote. Compared to her numbers in the Rothschild model Clinton's econometric model average is 45.0 percentage points lower.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The results of the Rothschild model for Clinton are thus 41.7 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 57.3% in Illinois.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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