Rothschild model in Pennsylvania: Trump is in the lead

The Rothschild model published an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model expects that Clinton will obtain 48.0% of the two-party vote share in Pennsylvania, while Trump will end up with 52.0%.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models should be regarded with caution, as they can include substantial errors. Instead of trusting the results from single econometric models, one should look at combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon different methods and data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

When compared to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed worse with 3.9 percentage points, while Trump did better with 3.9 percentage points.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

Clinton has 5.4 percentage points less and Trump has 5.4 percentage points more when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for Pennsylvania.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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