Rothschild model in Ohio: Trump is in the lead

The Rothschild model provided an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 32.0% for Clinton and 68.0% for Trump in Ohio.

Ohio is traditionally a battleground state, where the two major political parties have historically gained similar voter support. This is why the election outcome here is viewed as critical in determining which party will win the majority of electoral votes.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, because they can contain large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single econometric models, the evidence-based approach is to use combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates different methods and data.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Ohio has Trump at 49.8% of the two-party vote. Compared to his numbers in the Rothschild model Trump's econometric model average is 18.2 percentage points lower.

The Rothschild model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 49.3% of the two-party vote in Ohio, which is 18.7 percentage points below the results of the Rothschild model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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