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Rothschild model in New Hampshire: Clinton is in the lead


The Rothschild model provided an updated forecast of the election result. The model predicts that Clinton will achieve 71.0% of the two-party vote share in New Hampshire, while Trump will win 29.0%.

New Hampshire is traditionally a purple state, where Democrats and Republicans have often won similar levels of voter support. Therefore, the election outcome in that state is viewed as critical in determining the overall result of the presidential election.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, one should not focus too much on the results of an individual econometric model. Rather than trusting the results from single econometric models, research in forecasting recommends to rely on combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on different methods and data.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

Clinton has 17.6 percentage points more and Trump has 17.6 percentage points less when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for New Hampshire.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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