Rothschild model in Nevada: Trump is in the lead

The Rothschild model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. The model predicts that Clinton will collect 39.0% of the two-party vote share in Nevada, whereas Trump will end up with 61.0%.

In Nevada, the election outcome is often decided by a narrow margin. Therefore, the state is commonly referred to as a swing state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, as they sometimes incorporate large errors. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, one should rely on combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

The Rothschild model compared with PollyVote's forecast

Clinton has 12.1 percentage points less and Trump has 12.1 percentage points more when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for Nevada.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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