Rothschild model in Michigan: Clinton is in the lead
The Rothschild model is captured in the econometric models component of the PollyVote. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 87.0% for Clinton and 13.0% for Trump in Michigan.
Putting the results in context
Individual econometric models should be regarded with caution, because they often include large biases. Rather, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
Clinton has 33.2 percentage points more and Trump has 33.2 percentage points less when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for Michigan.