The Rothschild model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 57.0% for Clinton and 43.0% for Trump in Iowa.
Iowa is traditionally a battleground state, where Democrats and Republicans have historically gained similar levels of support among voters. Therefore, the election outcome here is considered critical in determining who will win the majority of electoral votes.
Putting the results in context
Single econometric models should be regarded with caution, as they can contain large errors. Rather, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results compared to other econometric models
Clinton is currently at 52.4% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in Iowa. This value is 4.6 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the Rothschild model.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The results of the Rothschild model for Clinton are thus 5.8 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 51.2% in Iowa.