Rothschild model in Florida: Trump with very clear lead

The Rothschild model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote. The model expects that Clinton will garner 24.0% of the two-party vote share in Florida, while Trump will end up with 76.0%.

Historically, Florida has been a swing state, in which neither the GOP nor the Democrats have had overwhelming support to secure that state's electoral college votes. This is why forecasts in this state are of particular interest.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, because they can contain large errors. At the very least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

When compared to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed worse with 25.5 percentage points, while Trump did better with 25.5 percentage points.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

Clinton has 26.5 percentage points less and Trump has 26.5 percentage points more when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for Florida.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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