The Rothschild model is part of the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 24.0% for Clinton and 76.0% for Trump in Florida.
Historically, Florida has been a swing state, in which neither the Republican Party nor the Democratic Party has had overwhelming support to clinch its electoral college votes. Therefore, forecasts in this state are of particular value.
Putting the results in context
Individual econometric models can include large errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single econometric models, we recommend to consult combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
Comparison to other econometric models
If we look at an average of Florida econometric models, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 50.5%. Compared to his numbers in the Rothschild model Trump's econometric model average is 25.5 percentage points worse.
The Rothschild model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The results of the Rothschild model for Trump are thus 26.1 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 49.9% in Florida.