Rothschild model in Arizona: Trump is in the lead

The Rothschild model published an updated forecast of the election result. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 1.0% for Clinton and 99.0% for Trump in Arizona.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models should be interpreted with caution, as they often contain large biases. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, the recommended strategy look at combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates different methods and data.

Comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of Arizona econometric models, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 57.3%. This value is 41.7 percentage points lower than his respective numbers in the Rothschild model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 54.1% of the two-party vote in Arizona, which is 44.9 percentage points below the results of the Rothschild model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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