Rothschild model: Clinton with clear lead in Iowa

The Rothschild model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 57.0% for Clinton and 43.0% for Trump in Iowa.

In Iowa, the election outcome is often decided by a narrow margin. This is why the state is commonly referred to as a swing state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, because they sometimes incorporate large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single econometric models, one should rely on combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which relies on different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

In comparison to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed better with 4.6 percentage points, while Trump did worse with 4.6 percentage points.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

Clinton has 5.9 percentage points more and Trump has 5.9 percentage points less when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for Iowa.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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