The Rothschild model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote. The model currently predicts a tie, with each candidate winning 50% of the two-party vote.
In Iowa, the election outcome is usually close. This is the reason why the state is commonly referred to as a purple state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. In general, a good strategy is to not put too much trust in the results of an individual econometric model. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, the evidence-based approach is to rely on combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates different methods and data.
Comparison to other econometric models
In comparison to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed worse with 0.0 percentage points, while Trump did better with 0.0 percentage points.