Pennsylvania: Tossup between Clinton and Trump in latest DeSart model

The DeSart model released an updated forecast of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will receive 50.3% of the two-party vote share in Pennsylvania, whereas Trump will end up with 49.7%.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models may include substantial errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single econometric models, the recommended strategy look at combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which includes different data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

When compared to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed worse with 1.6 percentage points, while Trump did better with 1.6 percentage points.

The DeSart model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

Clinton has 3.0 percentage points less and Trump has 3.0 percentage points more when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for Pennsylvania.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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