Ohio: Trump and Clinton virtually tied in new DeSart model

The DeSart model published an updated forecast of the election result. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 49.1% for Clinton and 50.9% for Trump in Ohio.

Historically, Ohio has been a battleground state, in which neither the Democrats nor the Republicans have had overwhelming support to clinch that state's electoral college votes. Therefore, forecasts here are of particular value.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Hence, one should not have too much faith in the results of a single econometric model. Rather, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Ohio has Trump at 49.8% of the two-party vote. Relative to his numbers in the DeSart model Trump's econometric model average is 1.1 percentage points worse.

The DeSart model compared with PollyVote's prediction

PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 49.3% of the two-party vote in Ohio, which is 1.6 percentage points below the results of the DeSart model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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