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Ohio: Tossup between Clinton and Trump in latest Jerome model

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The Jerome model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 51.3% for Clinton and 48.7% for Trump in Ohio.

Historically, Ohio has been a purple state, in which neither the Democrats nor the Republicans have had overwhelming support to secure that state's electoral college votes. This is the reason why forecasts here are of particular value.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. As a result, a good strategy is to not be too confident the results of an individual econometric model. Rather, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of Ohio econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 50.2%. This value is 1.1 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Jerome model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 0.6 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 50.7% in Ohio.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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