Ohio: Rothschild model shows Trump in the lead

The Rothschild model is part of the econometric models component of the PollyVote. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 32.0% for Clinton and 68.0% for Trump in Ohio.

Historically, Ohio has been a battleground state, in which neither the GOP nor the Democrats have had overwhelming support to secure its electoral college votes. This is why forecasts here are of particular importance.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, a good strategy is to not be too confident the results of an individual econometric model. Rather than relying on results from single econometric models, the recommended strategy use combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which incorporates different data.

Results compared to other econometric models

In comparison to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed worse with 18.2 percentage points, while Trump did better with 18.2 percentage points.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

Clinton has 18.7 percentage points less and Trump has 18.7 percentage points more when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for Ohio.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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