The Jerome model is captured in the econometric models component of the PollyVote. The model's forecast is that Clinton will receive 51.3% of the two-party vote share in Ohio, while Trump will win 48.7%.
In Ohio, the popular vote is usually close. This is why the state is commonly regarded as a battleground state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
Putting the results in context
Individual econometric models should be interpreted with caution, as they may incorporate substantial errors. Instead of trusting the results from single econometric models, one should use combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which uses different data.
Results in comparison to other econometric models
When compared to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed better with 1.1 percentage points, while Trump did worse with 1.1 percentage points.
The Jerome model compared with PollyVote's forecast
Clinton has 0.6 percentage points more and Trump has 0.6 percentage points less when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for Ohio.