New Jerome model in Nevada: Clinton and Trump in a virtual tie

The Jerome model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model's forecast is that Clinton will obtain 51.5% of the two-party vote share in Nevada, whereas Trump will win 48.5%.

In Nevada, the popular vote is usually decided by a narrow margin. This is the reason why the state is commonly considered a battleground state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models can contain large errors, and should be treated with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single econometric models, you should rely on combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

The Jerome model compared with PollyVote's forecast

Clinton has 0.4 percentage points more and Trump has 0.4 percentage points less when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for Nevada.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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