The Jerome model is included in the econometric models component of the PollyVote. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 54.1% for Clinton and 45.9% for Trump in New Hampshire.
New Hampshire is traditionally a battleground state, where Democrats and Republicans have historically gained similar voter support. Hence, the election outcome here is viewed as crucial in determining the overall result of the presidential election.
Putting the results in context
Individual econometric models can contain large errors, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single econometric models, the evidence-based approach is to consult combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates different methods and data.
The Jerome model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
Clinton has 0.7 percentage points more and Trump has 0.7 percentage points less when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for New Hampshire.