New DeSart model in Wisconsin: Trump and Clinton in a dead heat

The DeSart model published an updated prediction of the election result. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 51.2% for Clinton and 48.9% for Trump in Wisconsin.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, since they may incorporate large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single econometric models, research in forecasting recommends to consult combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which includes different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

When compared to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed worse with 2.0 percentage points, while Trump did better with 2.0 percentage points.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

Clinton has 2.6 percentage points less and Trump has 2.6 percentage points more when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for Wisconsin.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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