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New DeSart model in Ohio: Trump and Clinton in a tossup

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The DeSart model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. The model expects that Clinton will obtain 49.1% of the two-party vote share in Ohio, whereas Trump will win 50.9%.

In Ohio, the popular vote is often decided by a narrow margin. Therefore, the state is commonly referred to as a swing state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, since they sometimes contain large errors. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, the recommended strategy use combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which relies on different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

In comparison to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed worse with 1.1 percentage points, while Trump did better with 1.1 percentage points.

The DeSart model compared with PollyVote's forecast

Clinton has 1.6 percentage points less and Trump has 1.6 percentage points more when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for Ohio.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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