Nevada: Trump and Clinton virtually tied in new Jerome model

The Jerome model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model predicts that Clinton will obtain 51.5% of the two-party vote share in Nevada, whereas Trump will end up with 48.5%.

Historically, Nevada has been a purple state, in which neither the GOP nor the Democrats have had overwhelming support to secure its electoral college votes. This is why forecasts in this state are of particular interest.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, because they can incorporate large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single econometric models, the best practice is to look at combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

Clinton has 0.4 percentage points more and Trump has 0.4 percentage points less when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for Nevada.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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