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Jerome model: Trump with small lead in Texas

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The Jerome model released an updated prediction of the election result. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 46.8% for Clinton and 53.2% for Trump in Texas.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, because they may incorporate large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single econometric models, forecasting research recommends to rely on combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which includes different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

When compared to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed better with 3.8 percentage points, while Trump did worse with 3.8 percentage points.

The Jerome model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

Clinton has 2.8 percentage points more and Trump has 2.8 percentage points less when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for Texas.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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