Jerome model: Trump with comfortable lead in Montana

The Jerome model provided an updated prediction of the election result. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 45.3% for Clinton and 54.7% for Trump in Montana.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, because they can contain large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single econometric models, we recommend to rely on combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

Clinton has 2.4 percentage points more and Trump has 2.4 percentage points less when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for Montana.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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