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Jerome model: Trump with clear lead in Virginia


The Jerome model published an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 44.3% for Clinton and 55.7% for Trump in Virginia.

Virginia is traditionally a swing state, where the GOP and the Democrats have historically achieved similar voter support. Therefore, the election outcome in that state is considered important in determining which party will win the majority of electoral votes.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Hence, a good strategy is to not be overly confident the results of an individual econometric model. Rather, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Virginia has Trump at 53.1% of the two-party vote. This value is 2.6 percentage points lower than his corresponding numbers in the Jerome model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 5.9 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 49.8% in Virginia.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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