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Jerome model: Trump with clear lead in Virginia


The Jerome model provided an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model's forecast is that Clinton will achieve 44.3% of the two-party vote share in Virginia, whereas Trump will end up with 55.7%.

In Virginia, the election outcome is often decided by a narrow margin. This is the reason why the state is commonly referred to as a swing state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models can include large biases, and should be treated with caution. Rather, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

In comparison to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed worse with 2.6 percentage points, while Trump did better with 2.6 percentage points.

The Jerome model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

Clinton has 6.9 percentage points less and Trump has 6.9 percentage points more when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for Virginia.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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