The Jerome model provided an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model's forecast is that Clinton will achieve 44.3% of the two-party vote share in Virginia, whereas Trump will end up with 55.7%.
In Virginia, the election outcome is often decided by a narrow margin. This is the reason why the state is commonly referred to as a swing state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
Putting the results in context
Single econometric models can include large biases, and should be treated with caution. Rather, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results in comparison to other econometric models
In comparison to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed worse with 2.6 percentage points, while Trump did better with 2.6 percentage points.
The Jerome model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
Clinton has 6.9 percentage points less and Trump has 6.9 percentage points more when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for Virginia.