Jerome model: Trump trails by a very clear margin
The Jerome model is part of the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. According to this model, Clinton will garner 86.4% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will win 13.6%.
Putting the results in context
Single econometric models may include substantial errors, and should be interpreted with caution. At the very least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results in comparison to other econometric models
Clinton currently achieves 89.2% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models. Compared to her numbers in the Jerome model Clinton's econometric model average is 2.8 percentage points higher.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 3.9 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 90.3%.