Jerome model: Trump in Oregon trails by a moderate margin

The Jerome model is captured in the econometric models component of the PollyVote. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 54.2% for Clinton and 45.8% for Trump in Oregon.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models can contain large errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, forecasting research recommends to consult combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

Clinton is currently at 54.1% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in Oregon. Relative to her numbers in the Jerome model Clinton's econometric model average is 0.1 percentage points lower.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 1.4 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 52.8% in Oregon.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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