Jerome model in South Dakota: Trump is in the lead

The Jerome model published an updated forecast of the election result. According to this model, Clinton will achieve 43.0% of the two-party vote share in South Dakota, whereas Trump will win 57.0%.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models may include substantial errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single econometric models, we recommend to consult combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of South Dakota econometric models, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 59.6%. Relative to his numbers in the Jerome model Trump's econometric model average is 2.6 percentage points higher.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 2.3 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 59.3% in South Dakota.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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