Jerome model in South Carolina: Trump with comfortable lead

The Jerome model is included in the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 46.6% for Clinton and 53.4% for Trump in South Carolina.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, because they sometimes contain large errors. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, the evidence-based approach is to look at combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates different methods and data.

Comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of South Carolina econometric models, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 55.7%. Compared to his numbers in the Jerome model Trump's econometric model average is 2.3 percentage points better.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The results are consistent with the prediction from PollyVote for South Carolina.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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