Jerome model in Pennsylvania: Clinton with comfortable lead

The Jerome model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 53.5% for Clinton and 46.5% for Trump in Pennsylvania.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, one should not focus too much on the results of a single econometric model. Rather than trusting the results from single econometric models, the recommended strategy use combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes different methods and data.

Results vs. other econometric models

Clinton can currently count on 51.9% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in Pennsylvania. This value is 1.6 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Jerome model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 0.1 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 53.4% in Pennsylvania.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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