The Jerome model provided an updated forecast of the election result. The model expects that Clinton will achieve 53.5% of the two-party vote share in Pennsylvania, whereas Trump will end up with 46.5%.
Putting the results in context
Individual econometric models often incorporate substantial biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. At least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results compared to other econometric models
When compared to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed better with 1.6 percentage points, while Trump did worse with 1.6 percentage points.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
Clinton has 0.1 percentage points more and Trump has 0.1 percentage points less when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for Pennsylvania.