Jerome model in Pennsylvania: Clinton is in the lead

The Jerome model provided an updated forecast of the election result. The model expects that Clinton will achieve 53.5% of the two-party vote share in Pennsylvania, whereas Trump will end up with 46.5%.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models often incorporate substantial biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. At least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to other econometric models

When compared to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed better with 1.6 percentage points, while Trump did worse with 1.6 percentage points.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

Clinton has 0.1 percentage points more and Trump has 0.1 percentage points less when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for Pennsylvania.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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