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Jerome model in Oregon: Clinton is in the lead


The Jerome model released an updated prediction of the election result. The model forecasts that Clinton will achieve 54.2% of the two-party vote share in Oregon, whereas Trump will end up with 45.8%.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, because they often incorporate large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single econometric models, forecasting research recommends to look at combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which relies on different data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

In comparison to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed better with 0.1 percentage points, while Trump did worse with 0.1 percentage points.

The Jerome model compared with PollyVote's prediction

Clinton has 1.4 percentage points more and Trump has 1.4 percentage points less when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for Oregon.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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