Jerome model: In North Carolina trails by a small margin

The Jerome model published an updated forecast of the election outcome. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 47.2% for Clinton and 52.8% for Trump in North Carolina.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. In general, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of a single econometric model. Rather than trusting the results from single econometric models, one should rely on combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

Clinton has 2.2 percentage points less and Trump has 2.2 percentage points more when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for North Carolina.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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