Jerome model in New York: Clinton is in the lead

The Jerome model released an updated forecast of the election result. The model expects that Clinton will receive 58.9% of the two-party vote share in New York, while Trump will win 41.1%.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, since they may incorporate large errors. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, forecasting research recommends to look at combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses different methods and data.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

Clinton has 0.7 percentage points less and Trump has 0.7 percentage points more when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for New York.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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