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Jerome model in Iowa: Clinton with comfortable lead

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The Jerome model provided an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model's forecast is that Clinton will obtain 54.3% of the two-party vote share in Iowa, while Trump will end up with 45.7%.

Historically, Iowa has been a swing state, in which no single party has had overwhelming support to secure that state's electoral college votes. Hence, predictions here are of particular interest.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, as they may incorporate large errors. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, you should consult combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes different methods and data.

Results compared to other econometric models

Clinton is currently at 52.4% of the two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in Iowa. This value is 1.9 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Jerome model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 51.2% of the two-party vote in Iowa, which is 3.1 percentage points below the results of the Jerome model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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