Jerome model in Illinois: Clinton is in the lead

The Jerome model provided an updated forecast of the election result. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 54.4% for Clinton and 45.6% for Trump in Illinois.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models can include large errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, you should use combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of Illinois econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 54.0%. Relative to her numbers in the Jerome model Clinton's econometric model average is 0.4 percentage points worse.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 2.9 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 57.3% in Illinois.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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