Jerome model: In Hawaii trails by a clear margin
The Jerome model released an updated prediction of the election outcome. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 58.1% for Clinton and 41.9% for Trump in Hawaii.
Putting the results in context
Individual econometric models often include substantial biases, and should be interpreted with caution. At the very least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
In comparison to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed worse with 6.0 percentage points, while Trump did better with 6.0 percentage points.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
Clinton has 9.7 percentage points less and Trump has 9.7 percentage points more when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for Hawaii.