Jerome model: In Hawaii trails by a clear margin

The Jerome model released an updated prediction of the election outcome. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 58.1% for Clinton and 41.9% for Trump in Hawaii.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models often include substantial biases, and should be interpreted with caution. At the very least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

In comparison to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed worse with 6.0 percentage points, while Trump did better with 6.0 percentage points.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

Clinton has 9.7 percentage points less and Trump has 9.7 percentage points more when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for Hawaii.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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