Jerome model in Hawaii: Clinton is in the lead

The Jerome model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 58.1% for Clinton and 41.9% for Trump in Hawaii.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models should be treated with caution, since they often incorporate large biases. Instead of trusting the results from single econometric models, the best practice is to rely on combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results compared to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Hawaii has Clinton at 64.1% of the two-party vote. This value is 6.0 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the Jerome model.

The Jerome model compared with PollyVote's prediction

PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 67.8% of the two-party vote in Hawaii, which is 9.7 percentage points above the results of the Jerome model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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