Jerome model: In Connecticut trails by a moderate margin

The Jerome model published an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model predicts that Clinton will obtain 53.5% of the two-party vote share in Connecticut, whereas Trump will end up with 46.5%.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. In general, one should not focus too much on the results of a single econometric model. Instead of trusting the results from single econometric models, the best practice is to look at combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results vs. other econometric models

In comparison to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed worse with 1.6 percentage points, while Trump did better with 1.6 percentage points.

The Jerome model compared with PollyVote's forecast

Clinton has 1.1 percentage points less and Trump has 1.1 percentage points more when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for Connecticut.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.