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Jerome model: In Colorado trails by a moderate margin


The Jerome model published an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model forecasts that Clinton will collect 53.7% of the two-party vote share in Colorado, whereas Trump will end up with 46.3%.

Historically, Colorado has been a swing state, in which no single party has had overwhelming support to secure its electoral college votes. Therefore, predictions in this state are of particular value.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, because they often contain large errors. At the very least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

In comparison to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed better with 1.7 percentage points, while Trump did worse with 1.7 percentage points.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

Clinton has 0.5 percentage points less and Trump has 0.5 percentage points more when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for Colorado.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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