Jerome model in Colorado: Clinton is in the lead

The Jerome model published an updated forecast of the election result. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 53.7% for Clinton and 46.3% for Trump in Colorado.

In Colorado, the popular vote is often decided by a narrow margin. This is the reason why the state is commonly regarded as a battleground state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, you should not have too much faith in the results of an individual econometric model. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, you should look at combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

Clinton can currently count on 52.0% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in Colorado. Compared to her numbers in the Jerome model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.7 percentage points worse.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 0.3 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 53.4% in Colorado.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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