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Jerome model in California: Clinton is in the lead


The Jerome model released an updated forecast of the election result. The model forecasts that Clinton will obtain 53.3% of the two-party vote share in California, whereas Trump will end up with 46.7%.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models often contain substantial biases, and should be treated with caution. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, research in forecasting recommends to rely on combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on different methods and data.

Comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of California econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 56.6%. Relative to her numbers in the Jerome model Clinton's econometric model average is 3.3 percentage points better.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 6.3 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 59.6% in California.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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