The Jerome model is part of the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 53.3% for Clinton and 46.7% for Trump in California.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, a good strategy is to not put too much trust in the results of a single econometric model. Rather than trusting the results from single econometric models, one should use combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates different methods and data.
Results compared to other econometric models
In comparison to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed worse with 3.3 percentage points, while Trump did better with 3.3 percentage points.
The Jerome model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
Clinton has 6.3 percentage points less and Trump has 6.3 percentage points more when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for California.