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Jerome model in Arizona: Trump with clear lead


The Jerome model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 42.8% for Clinton and 57.2% for Trump in Arizona.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, you should not be too confident the results of a single econometric model. Instead of trusting the results from single econometric models, forecasting research recommends to look at combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on different methods and data.

Comparison to other econometric models

Trump is currently at 57.3% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in Arizona. Compared to his numbers in the Jerome model Trump's econometric model average is 0.1 percentage points better.

The Jerome model compared with PollyVote's prediction

PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 54.1% of the two-party vote in Arizona, which is 3.1 percentage points below the results of the Jerome model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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