Jerome model in Arizona: Trump is in the lead

The Jerome model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote. The model forecasts that Clinton will collect 42.8% of the two-party vote share in Arizona, whereas Trump will win 57.2%.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, because they often contain large errors. At least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

In comparison to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed better with 0.1 percentage points, while Trump did worse with 0.1 percentage points.

The Jerome model compared with PollyVote's forecast

Clinton has 3.2 percentage points less and Trump has 3.2 percentage points more when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for Arizona.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.