Jerome model: Clinton with comfortable lead in New Hampshire

The Jerome model provided an updated prediction of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 54.1% of the two-party vote share in New Hampshire, whereas Trump will win 45.9%.

New Hampshire is traditionally a purple state, where the candidates of both major parties have historically gained similar levels of support among voters. Hence, the election outcome in that state is regarded crucial in determining the overall result of the presidential election.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, one should not be too confident the results of an individual econometric model. Instead of trusting the results from single econometric models, one should look at combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

Clinton has 0.7 percentage points more and Trump has 0.7 percentage points less when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for New Hampshire.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.