Jerome model: Clinton in Texas trails by a small margin

The Jerome model released an updated prediction of the election result. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 46.8% for Clinton and 53.2% for Trump in Texas.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models should be treated with caution, because they can incorporate substantial biases. Rather than trusting the results from single econometric models, the recommended strategy consult combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon different methods and data.

Results compared to other econometric models

If we look at an average of Texas econometric models, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 57.0%. This value is 3.8 percentage points higher than his respective numbers in the Jerome model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 55.5% of the two-party vote in Texas, which is 2.3 percentage points above the results of the Jerome model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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