Jerome model: Clinton in Georgia trails by a small margin

The Jerome model published an updated forecast of the election result. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 47.6% for Clinton and 52.4% for Trump in Georgia.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Hence, one should not put too much trust in the results of a single econometric model. At the very least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of Georgia econometric models, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 54.5%. Relative to his numbers in the Jerome model Trump's econometric model average is 2.1 percentage points higher.

The Jerome model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 52.1% of the two-party vote in Georgia, which is 0.3 percentage points below the results of the Jerome model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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