The Jerome model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 48.1% for Clinton and 51.9% for Trump in Arkansas.
Putting the results in context
Individual econometric models should be interpreted with caution, as they often contain substantial errors. Rather than relying on results from single econometric models, the best practice is to use combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
Comparison to other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models in Arkansas has Trump at 58.5% of the two-party vote. Compared to his numbers in the Jerome model Trump's econometric model average is 6.6 percentage points better.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 5.1 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 57.0% in Arkansas.